Monday, August 3, 2015

Year 2012 Olympiad, Summer Games, Medals Won per Country Population - Weighted (min 2 medals)



Weighting is performed by letting Bronze=1, Silver=1.2, Gold=1.5. This convention is somewhat exponential, similar to the convention of Bronze=1, Silver=2, and Gold=4 however, in maintaining integers there is an enormous disparity that would be hard to reconcile.

I am using the natural logarithm here as I believe this to be more accurate than simply looking at a population as a country with 200 million people cannot enter 10X as many teams as one with a population of 20 million. However, In an increased population, there would be naturally (and with training) more at the extreme of the distribution worthy to be in the Olympics and thus a higher population would be expected to have more "talent". Now for the sake of a quick comparison, the log of 200 million and 20 million, respectively are about 19.1 and 16.8. Certainly for a sport where there might only be 10 persons representing their country, if theoretically the very best are put forward, it would be expected there would be a small difference between the best of a larger population country versus a smaller ones, per all other factors balanced as this goes directly to the probabilities of distributions, A more complicated measure could be undertaken but this one I feel does what it is intended to do. Whereas Jamaica was far on top per my prior two websites of making such a comparison, albeit still noteworthy comparisons, we should see in this more accurate comparison, findings that shouldn't be all too surprising but there would likely be some surprises.

As you can see, the wealthier countries are on top, but some not so wealthy are up there as well which could be partly explained by the choice of government and within the culture as well, to put greater importance in international competition. Generally, the impoverished nations do not fare as well and you may guess that some countries really do not have much of an interest, apparently based in their cultural values which may be based in religion, displacement with other desires, too much of a struggle to survive and which I say has much to do with irresponsible overpopulating. I will soon make a web site of GDP per person and rank by birth rate and by population density. Somehow those in third world countries have to come to the realization that making fewer babies is more responsible, in making only those the parents can support and which there is opportunity within the country to not have say 10% of the population as migrant workers in other countries and have to rely on a female member of the family to be a prostitute - it boils down to the decisions of parents and so many take that big responsibility too lightly.

For a simple medals per population table: 2012 Olympics, Medals Won per Country Population






RankCountryPopulation (millions)Weighted MedalsWeighted Medals/Log Population
1United States314132.86.79
2China1,350111.45.30
3Russian Federation143995.27
4Great Britain62.382.94.62
5Germany81.953.32.93
6Australia22.741.72.46
7Japan12844.32.37
8France65.441.72.32
9Republic of Korea50.036.12.04
10Italy60.833.81.89
11Netherlands16.724.21.46
12Ukraine45.6241.36
13Hungary9.9621.81.35
14Spain46.220.51.16
15Canada34.919.51.12
16New Zealand4.4316.11.05
17Cuba11.217.11.05
18Brazil19219.51.02
19Kazakhstan16.816.71.00
20Jamaica2.7114.80.999
21Belarus9.4615.50.965
22Iran75.1150.827
23Czech Republic10.512.60.779
24Kenya42.712.80.729
25Azerbaijan9.2411.40.711
26Denmark5.5810.80.695
27Romania19.0110.656
28Poland38.511.40.653
29Sweden9.519.30.579
30Georgia4.508.10.529
31Colombia46.69.10.515
32Croatia4.297.70.504
33Ethiopia84.38.70.477
34North Korea24.680.470
35South Africa50.67.90.445
36Mexico1128.10.437
37Lithuania3.196.20.414
38Ireland4.595.70.372
39Mongolia2.845.40.363
40Turkey74.76.40.353
41Switzerland7.955.40.340
42Norway5.035.20.337
43Slovenia2.064.70.323
44India1,2106.40.306
45Serbia7.124.70.298
46Trinidad and Tobago1.3240.284
47Slovakia5.454.20.271
48Argentina40.14.70.268
49Uzbekistan29.14.50.262
50Tunisia10.73.70.229
51Armenia3.273.20.213
52Finland5.413.20.206
53Belgium11.03.20.197
54Thailand65.53.40.189
55Latvia2.072.50.172
56Dominican Republic9.452.70.168
57Estonia1.292.20.156
58Puerto Rico3.732.20.145
59Taipei6.902.20.140
60Qatar1.7020.139
61Bulgaria7.362.20.139
62Moldova3.5620.133
63Egypt82.52.40.132
64Singapore5.1820.129
65Malaysia28.32.20.128
66Greece10.820.123
67Indonesia2382.20.114








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